The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 3/25 – 3/29/2024

The DXY Bulls had a breakout to the upside, and the trend is fighting to remain strong. A grind higher is the call.

Crude Oil is trying to stabilize, but it is still in a Bull trend. A buy dip posture is the way to approach this market until there is a valid reversal signal.

30yr T-Bond Yields are in a short-term retreat. With economic numbers riding the inflation trend it is tough to be a Bull. Wait for a valid signal. This market is setup to slice and dice.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bears had a strong Close below the monthly directional pivot level. Key off this area. Trading under here keeps the market hard pressed on a mission to dip into the critical support band. This is a key area for the market. If there is a failure from the 1.0713 level things will get very rough. Trading back in this area could generate a spike low. With Yields in a sideways pattern USD strength is not likely to hold up.

A close above the monthly directional pivot level is needed to confirm any strength this week. If this occurs it would be a good indication that the Bulls area set to regain the Bull trend and make a play for the critical resistance band. This is a very strong resistance area. It would be unwise to fade a rally above 1.1022. Trading back in this area would be a strong sign that the Bulls are in control and have the upside target #1 in their cross hairs.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Riding the line to start the week. Use the monthly directional pivot level for directional bias. Momentum is on the Bears side. Below 1.2594 the short-term trend remains in play. Look out below as this currency tries to press the trend into the downside correction band. This should hold a lower trading market. The GBPUSD made a higher move high after a lower move low, and a wide range trade may be forming. Beware.

If the Bulls can reverse gears, it will be a tough ride to the upside as the Bulls try and get back up towards the critical resistance band. This is a key area. If the Bulls are going to get a strong bounce, they need to get a Close above the 1.2696 level. If this occurs, the GBPUSD has a good shot at challenging the upside breakout level. Trading above here would be a good sign that the Bull trend is back and the upside target #1 becomes a very likely level to reach.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USCHF Bulls are pressing the extreme into the upside correction zone. Momentum is on the side of strength, but a be prepared for a profit taking pullback. If the market is to remain strong there will be a rally to newer move highs above 0.9010. Be careful fighting this Bull. If Yields do not continue to retreat, it would be just what this market needs to help fuel more buying. The extended upside target level would then become a very reachable objective.

It would most likely take a strong drop in Yields to pull the USDCHF back this week. A dip below the 0.8936 level would be a good indication the that the market could fall back to the upside breakout level. This is a key pivot level for the short-term trend. A Close under here would indicate that the USDCHF is going to fall into a wide range trade, and things are very likely to get very choppy. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would confirm any true shift in trend.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The talk of the currency market is the USDJPY. The Bulls lifted the market to newer move highs, but it is getting kind of toppy. A short-term profit taking slide is very likely. Watch the upside breakout level. If the Bears can hold a trade under here it is very likely that the Bears will try and fall back on the 150.00 level. This is the key level. A Close under here would be a good sign that fresh selling could touch off new selling pressure and pile drive this FX pair towards the critical swing low level.

Upside momentum is running out of gas, but if the USDJPY can get a Close above 151.70 it would be a positive sign that the Bulls are not though with newer move highs. Use caution as the market carves out newer move highs. Unless there is big uptick in Yields it is not likely that the Bulls will hold a rally. 153.20 is the extended upside target.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Big sideways in the AUDUSD. There are swings, but very tough to follow. Use the directional pivot level for the market’s bias. Below here the market will be flirting with a fresh leg lower. The downside support band is the objective for the Bears, and with soft Yields it is a viable area to shoot for.

Only a rally above 0.6552 would confirm short-term strength. This would gear the Bulls up for a challenge of the upside breakout level. If the market can pierce this area, it would be a good sign that momentum could propel the AUDUSD into the upside resistance band. With Yields on edge, it is very likely that the trend could rally back into this area.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears touched off newer move lows in a big way last week. This has the market poised to keep hammering support towards the downside target level. Fundamentals are not good for this currency. Yields are in retreat, and it is not helping this FX pair. That is a strong indication that this market is a dog with flees. If you are a Bull, wait for a valid signal before fading this slide.

Only a rally above 0.6075 would confirm any show of strength. And that just puts the NZDUSD back into the Chop Zone. This is where the nightmare trade begins. It would take a big drop in Yields to justify a strong rally in this currency, and then the market could get back up into the critical resistance band. That is the cap for a higher trading market. There is no viable reason to expect the Bulls to get above here unless Yields, literally collapse.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls are inching in a newer move high. This keeps the creeping Bull alive as long as it can stay above the upside breakout level. Trading above here targets the critical resistance zone. For the Bulls this is a good trend area to shoot for, however, Yields are not helping. Watch the DXY. If it remains strong, the USDCAD could get a fresh surge of buying. That is the scenario that could help reinforce the short-term trend.

Below the upside breakout level, the USDCAD will be in a wide range trade all the way back to the downside breakout level. A print below here is likely to touch off Stops and drive the USDCAD into the downside correction zone. Yields are falling, and the momentum could build if the Bears regain control. The critical support level becomes a very viable sell off objective then. Good luck this week. At least FED time is over.