The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 03/03 – 03/07/2025

The DXY’s old Bearish correction band has now become key resistance. Key off this area for direction.

Crude Oil is snaking along support and is set to make lower move lows.

30yr T-Bond Yields are pulling back, but the market is butting up against the upside correction zone. Use this area for directional bias.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a grinder the EURUSD has become. This market is reduced to intraday swing trading. Daily action is a tight range trade. A short-term sell signal was generated on Friday, but the Bulls are looking to keep this market from falling lower. Between the upside correction zone and the downside breakout level it is more of the same tough trading. Use these areas for new breakout swing trades. If the market can get through the upside correction zone, then the Bulls may get a short-term rally going. A close above the upside target level would confirm any true longer-term strength. Sustained trading below the upside correction zone keeps this currency in limbo unless there is a failure from the downside breakout level. Be careful fading a lower trading market below here. Downside momentum is likely to build below here and make the DTL #1 and DTL #2 viable sell off objectives.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The GBPUSD barely pierced the upside correction zone last week. Another challenge of this area is on the menu for the week ahead. This is a key area for holding the upside correcton in this market in motion. Above this area the Bulls will be bucking up against the UTL #1 fast. Only a close above this area confirms longer-term strength. Bullish momenutm is expected to run out of gas because of fundamentals. UTL #2 is very unlikely to get hit unless U.S. Yields really collapse. Watch out for the Unemployment release this week. It could determin short-term direction for Yields. Another tough week ahead. A failure from Friday’s low is needed to reverse gears for the trend. Selling pressure could return fast so be nimble. If the Bears get below the downside breakout level fresh selling pressure could send this market back to the critical downside correction area.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Hovering over the USDCHF is the key to this market’s direction this week. Above here this currency will be hard pressed to climb back up toward the upside target level. This is a key area. A close above this level would be a strong indication that the longer-term Bull trend may be kicking up its heels again. However, a close below the downside breakout level will most likely keep this currency hard pressed and leaning toward another test of the Bearish correction band. Be mindful of fading a slide below here. A breaking market in this area could touch off fresh selling pressure that may drive this market back toward the downside target level. DTL #2 is the extended sell off objective. Things could get interesting with Gold reserves being called due from the Swiss. Deliveries better be on time. Otherwise, volatility is expected to rise. Then we may have some good swing trading action to look forward to. Let us see how things unfold over the next couple of weeks.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are trying to make a play for the upper resistance in the downward sloping trend channel they are trading in. Be cautious and tight with your Stops if you are a Bull. With Crude Oil looking to make lower lows and Yields looking to make lower lows this currency could reverse fast. Key off the DTL #1 for directional bias. Above here the market will be in a sell rally forecast all the way to the upside breakout level. Trading back in this area is the only thing that could likely justify this FX pair becoming a longer-term Bull. Below the DTL #1 (Critical BOJ Threshold Pivot Level), the Bears are expected to get aggressive as selling pressure will be on a mission for a retest of the downside correction band. Trading back in this area would be a good indication that the Bears could be on a longer-term mission to hit the DTL #2 level.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

A Sell signal was triggered last week, and the market is looking to make its way lower toward the downside breakout level. This is a key level. If the Bears get below here the AUDUSD has a good chance of hitting the long-term Bearish target. A bounce in this area is expected, but that should be a pause for the cause. New move lows are likely to continue for weeks to come which makes the extended Bearish target level a viable objective. Only a breach of the upside breakout level confirms strength. The upside correction zone is the first hurdle to cross on a fresh leg higher that could scrape the upside target level (Monthly Directional Pivot Level).

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears touched off a Sell signal in the NZDUSD last week. Bearish momentum is expected to build and send the market toward the downside target band. This area should hold for a while and a digestive trade is likely to develop here. However, this may be just a resting area before the next big push lower. New move lows target the downside target level over the next month. Only a rally into the upside correction band reverses the outlook. Trading back in this area would be an indication that the Bulls are in control and new move highs are going to be pressed in a big way. Fresh buying pressure could lift this currency all the way up toward to the upside breakout level area. We shall see.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bulls are riding a steep slope. The critical trend resistance area is where the market is aiming for. Overall, we are most likely just going to press the upper boundaries of the range trade that is developing. A close above the critical trend resistance area is necessary to confirm longer-term trend strength. Trading above here targets the upside target level. If the market falls back into the downside correction band it will most likely be more of the range trade conditions we have been dealing with since December. A close below the downside breakout level is needed to confirm a reversal in this market. If this occurs there will be an update.