The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 4/01 – 4/05/2024

The DXY continues to find strength. The trend remains intact, and another run at resistance is on the menu for the week ahead.

Crude Oil Bulls are on a mission for higher levels. More inflation ahead is likely, and the upside target #1 is now a viable objective.

30yr T-Bond traders are in limbo, and more sideways is the call. Watch economic numbers for direction.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Weakness is holding the trend in a Bearish posture below the monthly directional pivot level. A sideways to lower trade is likely as the market tries to press newer move lows. With Yields in a narrowing trade, it is not expected for too much action to the downside. Only a close below 1.0713 would indicate that the Bears will not be happy until this currency pounds new monthly lows. An update will occur if the market should behave in this manner.

Only a close above 1.0834 would confirm a shift in momentum. Sustained trading in this area would be a positive sign that the EURUSD is firming back up. Do not get excited. This would mean that the market will be in a big sideways trade back up to the critical resistance band. If this occurs it would most likely be because Yields pull back sharply. Watch the interest rates to confirm trend bias this week.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Can the slide continue? Good question. Use the monthly directional pivot level for the market’s bias. Trading above here puts the breaks on the recent lower trending market and sets this currency up for sideways. It will be a rough trade back to the upside breakout level. Only a violation here would confirm the Bulls' intentions to press the neutral trend to new move highs. This would put the upside target level #1 in the market’s sights.

A failure from the 1.2594 level would be a good sign that the GBPUSD is ready to slam new move lows. This would confirm a lower low after a higher high. The downside correction band would then be the most likely area to aim for should this occur. With Yields in limbo, it is not expected for the GBPUSD to hit support too hard. However, if Yields get a boost the Bears would have a very good shot at pressing support down to the 1.2338 level.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

This market has been on a terror leg higher, and a pause is not out of the question. The Bulls have the upper hand with the trend, but a digestive phase is likely to develop. Use the 0.9015 level for directional bias. Above here the Bulls will be in a tough grind higher up to the extended upside target level. This should put a ceiling on the rally for a while unless Yields, really get a boost higher to help support the trend.

Below 0.9015 the USDCHF will be looking to fall back into the digestion area. A sideways choppy trade may be the call. The trend is a bit overdone, and a profit-taking pullback would be normal. Only a print below 0.8936 would signal that the Bears are gaining a grip on the market. Should this occur the critical short-term support band will be in play. That is all that should occur this week for a lower trading market unless there is a big shift in Yields.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Well, this market is set to disappoint in the week ahead. Wait for a valid signal. The Bulls have the lead, but newer move highs will be tough. Watch Yields and Crude Oil. If there is strength in either of these two variables it would help to keep the USDJPY pressed up against resistance. A close above 151.70 is needed to confirm any longer-term show of strength. 153.20 is the extended upside target.

The upside breakout level is the key area to watch. If the market can get a close under here it would be a good sign that the USDJPY is ready for a profit-taking break back towards the critical BOJ threshold level. Be careful in this area. It is expected to be a touch-and-go type of environment. If this happens the critical short-term correction band should get some play this week.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Wedging and going nowhere. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the AUDUSD is not having a good time with direction. More big sideways trading is the call for the week ahead. Key off the directional pivot level for the market’s bias. Below here this currency will be flirting with newer move lows. The downside support band is the Bearish objective.

Above 0.6552 the Bulls will have a rough time at pressing highs. The upside breakout level is the challenge to overcome. A breach of this level should spark fresh buying and drive this currency toward the upside resistance band. 0.6853 is the longer-term upside target. If Yields pull back sharply trading back in this area is very likely.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Can the Bears hold the trend? We shall see. Momentum is on the side of the Bears, and the downside target level is the objective. The trend is in an aggressive slope lower, and there is no sign of a pause. Only a sharp drop in Yields is likely to reverse gears for this FX pair.

Use caution if the NZDUSD gets a bounce. A profit-taking rally is not out of the question, but rallies are expected to fizzle out fast. Should the Bulls gain control it will be a tough trade back to the upside correction zone. That is all that is likely for a Bullish bounce, and only a close above 0.6149 would confirm differently. Should that occur, there will be an update.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

If there is an interesting Forex pair to trade this week it would be the USDCAD. The market is coming of newer move highs, but momentum seems to be slowing. Wait for a valid sign. If the market can take out last week’s high it would be a good indication that the Bulls are going to make a run for the critical resistance zone.

Only a failure from the downside breakout level would confirm a short-term shift in trend. The downside correction zone then becomes a very viable trend objective. Watch Yields. If there is a sharp drop in Yields the Bears may press newer move lows to the critical support level. Should this scenario develop, the longer-term trend may start to shift to a Bearish bias.