The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 4/22 – 4/26/2024

The DXY is hovering around the Upside Target #1 level. Friday had strange volatility. Except for the Consumer Confidence number for the EU Monday, it may be a sloppy trade for the currencies this week.

Crude Oil had a violent trade on Friday. This market is in corrective mode, and a Sell signal was triggered. Be careful…the trend is still a Bull.

30yr T-Bond traders ended the week with some crazy moves. It is a sell rally forecast this week. Yields are trending higher.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Buy Signal Entry Price: 1.0672

Sell Stop Price: 1.0595

Signal Target is the Bullish Target #2. Once the EURUSD hits Bullish Target #1 raise the protective Stop to the 1.0680 level.

We have a live Buy signal so you know the expected forecast for the week ahead. As long as Yields stay flat to firm the trade should have some legs. If last week's high gets taken out it is very possible that the Bulls could reach the Bullish Target #1 before the week is out.

A failure from the protective stop level at 1.0595 negates the Buy signal and sets the EURUSD in the position to reach the downside target #1. If this occurs there will be an update for new downside targets and upside corrective areas.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Support is getting hammered in this market, and momentum is on the side of the Bears. It is a sell rally forecast. The GBPUSD is in the heart of the downside correction band. If there is going to be a bounce it should happen in this area. Watch the 1.2338 level. If the Bears get below here, it is very likely that the trend could get stretched all the way to the downside target #1. The critical downside correction area should be the extreme for any exuberant slide.

A close above the downside correction band is needed to confirm that the market is ready for a pause in the Bear trend. Be careful. The GBPUSD remains in a sell rally forecast. Unless you have a very strong Buy signal it would be advisable to wait for a fresh sell signal. The 1.2594 monthly directional pivot level should put a halt to any fresh Bullish advance. Fundamentals do not support any long-term rally for this currency pair.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Pretty lame trade until Friday last week. The USDCHF touched its toes into the digestion area. Between here and the extended upside target level it will most likely be a rough range trade. Get ready and have rational expectations. Watch Yields to see if they get weak over the next couple of days. If so, then there is a good likelihood of the Bears making a play for a lower move low. Some trading in the digestion area is very possible, and it should hold the market up. Only a failure from 0.8936 confirms the Bears’ intentions to press new lows towards the critical short-term support band.

A close above the extended upside target level is needed to confirm the market's intentions to press the trend higher. Sustained trading above 0.9149 sets the Bulls up for a rally towards the 0.9300 level. Use caution though. A spike high could be lurking in the short-term future. Watch to see how Yields react this week. If Yields make higher highs, then the USDCHF could be on a mission to get near the 0.9410 – 0.9420 resistance band.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The rally is stalling for this currency pair. Friday had quite the volatility. Watch Yields this week. If there is a correction in Yields it may help bring fresh selling into this market. The USDJPY is already slowing the rally campaign since Crude Oil pulled back last week. With these two fundamentals in play, we are expecting a sell-off in the market. It is very likely that the profit-taking correction band should hold solid if there is a lower trending market. Be on the watch in case Yields soften a lot. If this occurs it may help to drive the Bears down towards the critical short-term correction band.

If the Bulls take out last week's high it is very likely that the USDJPY will make a run for the 155.00 level. This should put a stop to newer move highs. Unless there is a big rally in Crude Oil. If that occurs it could fuel fresh buying in this FX pair and send the Bulls up near the 157.20 area. Let us see how the week begins. Yen traders may be in for a boring sideways trade.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Is the Aussie ready to press the downside, or is it just lowering the bottom of the multi-month range trade? Use the digestion area for direction. If the Bulls can sustain a trade above the 0.6432 level then the market may have enough energy to correct back to the upside resistance band. This would put the AUDUSD back into the range trade area, and trading conditions could get very choppy. Until the upside breakout level is not violated it will be hard to remove the sell rally forecast for this FX pair.

A failure from the 0.6375 level would be a negative indication that the market is not through looking for lower lows. This puts the downside target band in the Bears' sights. That should be the floor for the AUDUSD. It is not likely that there will be trading under this area. Unless there is a big rally in Yields towards the highs from last Fall. That would then bury this currency pair.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears are flirting with the critical support band. It is a sell rally forecast until there is a valid reason to get Bullish. Be careful trying to fade this trend. If the market gets a print below 0.5838 the downside target band becomes a very viable objective. The downside target level should be the extreme for an extended follow-through move this week.

Sustained trading above the critical support band will have the market in limbo as it tries to stabilize. Unless there is a big pullback in Yields, the Bulls will be in a dogfight to recapture higher levels. The upside correction zone should put a lid on any rally. Fundamentals do not support a solid Bull trend, and neither do the technical breakdowns. If there is a major shift in outlook there will be an update later in the week.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears have a hold of the USDCAD and more follow-through action to the downside is expected. It is a sell rally forecast for a few sessions as the market makes a play for the short-term correction band. This area is a good spot for the slide to halt if this is a profit-taking move. A failure from 1.3336 would be a good indication that the overall trend is trying to reverse gears. The critical support level at 1.3277 should be the extreme for any harsh trend move Southwards.

The Bulls spiked a high through the upside Bullish target level. This is a key area. If the Bulls get a close above here it would mean the trend is back in play. Trading above the 1.3835 level is a positive indication that the market is on a mission to push new move highs up toward the 1.4000 area. First, we need a close above 1.3835 before we get too anxious about upside targets.