The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 4/29 – 5/03/2024

The DXY may have set a higher move low on Friday. Key off Friday’s low for directional bias this week.

Crude Oil is pressing the critical resistance band. If the market gets above here it will most likely make a higher move high on the Daily chart.

30yr T-Bond Yields are remaining firm. Do not let Friday’s rally fool you. The odds are high that Yields will remain firm for months to come.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Outside day with a lower close. A higher move high and the Buy signal Bullish target #1 was hit. Profit on one trade, and then the market pulled back to the Stop plus five pips. The signal is no longer active. Short-term the trend is still Bullish. Use Friday’s 1.0673 low for the market’s bias. Above here the EURUSD Bulls will try and make another run for new highs. If Yields are soft to start the week off then this scenario has a good chance at panning out. New highs should reach the Bullish target #2 or even the monthly directional pivot level.

A break under 1.0673 would be a good indication that the Bears are on a mission for new move lows. The downside target #1 is the objective. If Yields firm up and economic releases point to inflation then a continuation of the longer-term Bear trend is back on the table in a big way. If new weekly lows are triggered there will be an update.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD Bulls hit the critical correction band. Remember the overall trend is a Bear, and a turn to support is very likely. 1.2553 is expected to hold the market down. A breach of this level would be a good indication that the Bulls want to challenge the monthly directional pivot level. Expect heavy selling pressure in this area. Unless there is a huge drop in Yields it is not likely that the market will be able to get above this area. Above 1.2594 it will be a grind of a trade to get into the upside correction zone.

If the market falls below Friday’s low of 1.2448 the GBPUSD has a good shot at pressing the downside correction band. It could get very choppy in this area, and it may be a good area to take profits on any Shorts. Unless Yields rise sharply it is not likely that the market will fall below the 0.2338 level. If it does there will be an update.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Talk about being stuck in a rut. If this is any indication of how the Summertime trade will be for the Swissie it is not looking good. More sideways is the call for the USDCHF this week. Only a sustained trade above the critical resistance level would confirm the Bulls' resolve to lift the trend. The upside target level is all that is likely out of newer move highs. Unless the DXY gets a big rally. Then there is a chance the market could continue to trend up near the 0.9400 area.

Trading below 0.9149 keeps this market in sideways mode down to the 0.9010 level. A dip into the digestion area may be able to produce some extended downside action. 0.8936 should hold the market up. However, a failure here would be a good sign that the USDCHF Bears will be trying to get down into the critical short-term support band.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Up! Up! And Away! If there is a currency that is the talk of the Forex world this week it is the USDJPY. Wow, what a move on Friday. No action by the BOJ except rumors. Watch Yields and Crude Oil. If they stabilize or pull back it may help the Bears get a profit-taking slide. It would be good for a little digestion to develop. Parabolic moves are not an easy trade. Below Friday’s high the market will be most likely ready for a Bearish move toward the profit-taking correction band. Due to recent strength, this area should hold firm. Only a failure from the 153.75 level would confirm the market's intentions to try and get down to the critical short-term correction band.

If the USDJPY sustains a trade above the 158.43 level the Bulls might spark fresh buying. This would target the 159.50 – 159.60 resistance band. If Yields continue to rise, these levels all of a sudden would become very viable price targets to shoot for. Not to mention the Crude Oil Bulls' influence. When the BOJ eventually reacts, we will act accordingly. Until then the BOJ is not a factor.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bulls are on a mission, but can it last? The market fell off the monthly directional pivot level. Use this for direction this week. Trading above here keeps this steep-sloping trend intact. Many economic numbers this week could send the USD into a tizzy. So be nimble as the market heads toward the upside breakout level. Only a move above here would confirm that this market is building a new long-term trend against the USD. Not likely unless Yields soften significantly though.

Trading below 0.6552 will have this FX pair chopping around the upside resistance band. Keep an eye on the DXY. If the index starts to rally, it could help to drive this market back toward the digestion area. The outlook remains Bearish for the AUDUSD, and it is likely that the biggest moves will be to the downside for the next few months. Range trade swing traders may be in for some good action this Summer.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD traders lifted this currency to the critical correction band. Is a lower move high in place or forming? Never try and call a top, signals are mixed on this one. Watch Yields. If the USD falls under pressure this currency pair could continue to poke through resistance. A violation of 0.5994 would be a good sign that the Bulls are going to press this rally toward the upside correction zone. That should put a cap on a rising market. Until Yields fall back sharply this currency remains in a sell rally outlook.

Below the critical correction band, this market will be in a choppy holding pattern back to the critical support band. That is the key area holding the NZDUSD up. Trading under this area would be a negative sign that the Bears are on a mission to pound multi-month lows to the downside target band. The downside target level is the extended sell-off objective.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The short-term correction band seems to be holding up the USDCAD. Could a higher move low be forming? Use the 1.3623 bottom level of the short-term correction band for directional bias. Trading above here should shore up the market for a Bullish move up towards the critical correction band. This is a key area for this currency pair. A move above here would be a solid indication that the Bulls are on a mission for new multi-month highs.

Trading below 1.3623 adds fuel to the current Bear trend. The downside breakout level is the sell-off extreme for the USDCAD. Yields are too strong at the moment, and it is very unlikely that there is enough selling pressure to trend back to where the market was trading when 2024 began. It would take a Dovish shift by the FED in a big way to create a solid Bearish outlook. This is not to say that a big range trade is not in the cards for the next few months.