The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 4/8 – 4/12/2024

The DXY is trying to hold a Bullish posture setting a higher move high and a higher move low last week. Be careful… a Bull trap may be forming.

Crude Oil Bulls are on a terror. More inflation is ahead and it is just warming up. This is good for the USDJPY Bulls out there.

30yr T-Bond Bears like new move lows, and it is likely they may get them this week. This market is in a Sell rally forecast until further notice. The downside target zone is very reachable.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The biggest component of the DXY is riding the monthly directional pivot level. This will be the level to key off. Trading above here will have the Bulls in a grind higher. If Yields pull back the EURUSD may be able to get up to the critical resistance band. It is likely to be a touchy trade in this area. Fundamentals are horrible for the EU, and unless the ECB makes a move range bound conditions should prevail.

Below 1.0834 the Bears will be aimed at the critical support band. This is expected to hold the market up. Unless Yields begin to slip, a floor should be found in this area. Some good swings are on the horizon for the EURUSD, but they will most likely be contained in a big-range trade. Keep this in mind when evaluating expectations for trend moves. Be patient and wait for valid signals.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This market is looking Bearish in the short run, but overall, the market is in a big range trade. Do not be surprised if this is what we will be dealing with for the next few months. Above the monthly directional pivot level, the GBPUSD remains poised for a bounce. This does not mean the market is Bullish. It just means that the wide-range trade zone is the most likely area for trading over the next week or so. Only a breach of the upside target #1 would change the outlook to Bullish.

Below 1.2594 the GBPUSD will be under pressure. New move lows will be the motivation for the Bears, and the downside correction band will be a viable sell off target for this currency. It is doubtful that there will be much action under this area. Yields would need to firm up in a big way to justify any sharp slide below the 1.2338 level.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bulls are very resilient. After setting newer highs the market settled above the digestion area. Trading above here keeps the Bulls on a mission to press resistance up towards the extended upside target. This should stop the rally, and a digestion phase is expected. Yields may be firm, but they need a boost to help support the bulls in this FX pair.

Below 0.9010 the market should start to settle into the digestion area. The trend is in place, but a pullback for some profit-taking is becoming very likely. If the Bears do start to press support the critical short-term support band should hold the market up. However, if Yields start to fall back, then potential new lows could be extended. The longer-term outlook is a big range bound market. We may be seeing the upper band of the range forming.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

It has been over two weeks of limbo for the USDJPY and it may be more of the same. Positive Yields and a very Bullish Crude oil market keep this currency poised for higher levels. A challenge of resistance is on the agenda, and a breach of 151.70 targets the 153.20 level. Fundamentals and technical factors keep this FX pair in a buy-dip posture.

BOJ intervention coming soon? Probably not. A pullback in Yields this week reverses the short-term Bullish outlook and sets the Bears up for a test of the critical BOJ threshold level. A profit-taking correction is due, and a fresh leg lower could get as low as the critical short-term correction band. That is all that is likely for the USDJPY. This trade is going to get very tough over the next few months. Get ready.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

A big range trade has developed in the AUDUSD. Use the directional pivot level for the market’s bias this week. Trading above 0.6552 keeps the Bulls alive looking to challenge the upside breakout level. A breach of this level should spark fresh buying and keep driving the market into the upside resistance band. Watch for a big pullback in Yields. If this occurs a change in trend may be developing. Should the market get a close above the 0.6711 level, this currency will likely try and maintain a fresh Bullish leg higher towards the long-term upside target.

Below 0.6552 this currency pair will be under pressure as it tries to test the downside breakout level. This is a critical area for the AUDUSD. A failure here would be a fresh Sell signal that targets the downside support band. Lower highs and lower lows confirm the trend is going lower, but Yields need to go higher to press support beyond this lower support band. Let us see how the two markets react this week to get a better bead on the longer-term trend.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

There was a nice bounce last week, but the question is can it extend the upside correction? An early test of resistance is likely this week. If the Bulls can get above last week’s high, then there should be enough strength to make a run at the critical resistance band. This should put a ceiling on a corrective move higher. The only way this view would change is if Yields start to fall back sharply.

Sustained trading below last Thursday’s high would be a negative sign that momentum is starting to run out of gas. Especially if Yields firm up. Then there is a good chance that the Bears will press support to the downside target level and new move lows on a weekly basis. The critical support band should be the extreme for a lower trading market this week.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The trend remains intact, but it sure is on a very small slope. Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the USDCAD in a buy-break posture. Newer move highs are likely, but the critical resistance zone should keep the Bulls from advancing further. Watch to see if Yields trend higher this week. If so, it should help prop up this currency pair.

Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms weakness. New move lows should trigger fresh selling from weak Stops. This puts the downside correction zone in the Bear's crosshairs. A correction is overdue so it is a rational area for a pullback to reach. The question is what will Yields do? If Yields remain strong it is very unlikely that the USDCAD will fall below the downside correction zone. However, if there is a big pullback in Yields this week the market could stretch new move lows to the critical support level.