The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 6/17 – 6/21/2024

The DXY is gyrating like crazy, but the Bulls seem to have a bit of an edge going into the week.

Crude Oil is consolidating, and more of the same sideways action is expected this week.

30yr T-Bond Bulls have the upper hand, and Yields are in retreat. Don’t get too carried away since we have no major confirmation of long-term trend direction to the upside.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bears are on edge and pressing the sell signal. It is a sell rally forecast for this market as long as the DXY is a Bull. New move lows are at the top of the list for this currency cross. The sell signal target zone is the objective for the current leg lower. That should be it for a lower trading market because Yields are in retreat. It is doubtful that the Bears can maintain a lower trade in this market while Yields are going lower. Fundamentals are out of whack.

Very hard to get a positive vibe on the market this week. It will take a rally above the monthly directional pivot level to reverse gears for the EURUSD. The DXY would have to start a big break and slam new multi-month lows for this to occur. Fundamentally that would be needed. That would definaltely change the Bearish outlook and gear the Bulls up to make a run for the upside breakout level. A close above this level would set the stage for a rally that could see the critical resistance band before the month is through.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Pound fell just shy of the upside target #1 last week, and now it is looking to fall on support. An early test of support is expected this week because of fundamentals mostly. A test of the monthly directional pivot could get interesting this week. A touch-and-go trade could develop here. Be careful trying to fade a breaking market at these levels. Downside momentum has the potential to hit the short-term correction band before there is a bounce.

It would take a rally above last week’s high to take us off the Bearish forecast. Trading above here should spark fresh new move highs and confirm longer-term trend strength. If we get a close above the upside target #1 we will have an update for you.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bears are trying to negate the Buy signal, but the DXY may keep the signal alive. Use the DXY as an indicator to start the week off. If the index is positive There is a good chance that the market will climb back into the digestion area to say the least. The 0.9010 is the hurdle to cross. A rally above here should get a spile up to the critical resistance level.

A failure from the downside breakout level cancels the buy signal and reinforces the downtrend in a big way. Watch the DXY. If the index falls back on support, then the USDCHF could slam support all the way down toward the short-term sell-off zone. Not much more is likely for a lower trading market. Only a very big drop in Yields… a rate cut market reaction would dictate any move beyond this lower area.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY traders have a tough time these days. Currently, the market is in a sideways trade with a slight Bullish bias. While in the chop zone it would be advisable to wait for a valid signal before getting back in the market. If the Bulls can hold a trade above 158.18 the upside breakout level should get a test later in the week. A close above this level would be a sign of potential extreme volatility to come.

A dip under 153.54 is needed to put us back on the Bearish forecast. Trading back in this area is expected to build. A move to these lower levels will most likely be a grind of a trade. The critical short-term correction band is all that is expected for a lower trade. It would take a failure from the critical BOJ threshold level to shift the longer-term outlook.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Talk about a tough sideways trade, but momentum may now be under Bearish control. A test of support is expected early in the week. If the AUDUSD can get below the downside breakout level it should not be hard to test the monthly directional pivot level this week. Watch to see if the DXY gets a big rally this week. Should this occur there is a good chance that the Bears will be eyeing the downside correction zone.

If the Bulls can reverse gears and make a newer move daily high, then the upside breakout level should come into play. A close above 0.6716 is needed to confirm strength. With soft Yields it could help fuel the Bulls and help them hit the upside target level before the month is through. 0.6853 is the extended upside objective.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The critical resistance band is keeping the Bulls at bay. Three times a charm? Short-term the Bears are in control, and a follow-through slide is expected. An early test of support this week could set this market back on edge. If the market makes a new daily low there is a very good chance that this FX pair will keep trending lower into the Bullish support band.

If the Bulls retake control and breach the critical resistance band again…there could be a nice new trend extension to the upside. If Yields continue to pull back the fundamentals could justify a move back up to these levels. If there is a close above 0.6242 there will be an update with fresh upside trend projections.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are trying to keep the USDCAD up, and the DXY may help fuel the rally. There is a divergence between the USD and Yields right now. Key off the critical resistance correction band. This is the line in the sand if the market is going to fall back onto support. A rally above the 1.3773 level should ignite fresh buying pressure. That would make the upside Bullish target level a very reachable level.

Sustained trading under the critical resistance correction band could help the Bears make a run for new move lows. The Bullish support base area is the floor for a lower trade if the trend is to remain a Bull. A failure from the 1.3655 and all bets are off to the upside in the short-term. If this occurs, it is very likely that the medium-term trend is shifting to neutral at the very least. The profit taking extreme area will be hard to reach, but if Yields keep pulling back the USDCAD could slip into this lower area.