The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 6/24 – 6/28/2024

The DXY buy signal from a week ago is taking shape. We waited for the markets to open. The Bulls are salivating and ready to make a run for newer move highs.

Crude Oil has triggered multiple buy signals, but do not get too bullish. A sustained trade above the upside breakout level sets the market up to challenge the critical resistance band…not much more is expected for the short-term trend.

30yr T-Bond is technically a Bull, but a fundamental Bear. You heard it here first… the carry trade with the Yen is over, and when Japan starts to dump Bonds… the FED can cut all they want… More Sellers than Buyers! It means the FED’s hand is forced. They need to Raise rates to save the Bond market and the USD. Cutting will mean a Bond market Crash. Kindergarten math.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD momentum belongs to the Bears as they start the week testing support. A break under the downside breakout level is a good indication that the market is ready to make a run for the sell signal target zone. Not much more is likely with Yields remaining flat. Only a fresh leg lower in Bond prices would justify such a scenario. Not likely this week.

Above the downside breakout level, the market will be in a digestive phase as it averages out the trend. The slope is steep, and a pause for the cause is not out of the question. Only a rally above the upside breakout level would confirm any short-term shift in trend. The monthly directional pivot level would then be the big hurdle to not just hit, but cross.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Is the current correction into the critical support band going to bounce, or is the potential sell signal going to change things? Below the 1.2654 level the Bulls are in trouble as the Bears try and turn the short-term trend into a longer-term sell-off. Under 1.2612 the GBPUSD will be leaning on the monthly directional pivot level. Expect a choppy trade in this area, and use caution trying to fade the slide. Downside momentum can stretch all the way into the short-term correction band before there is a turn in the market momentum.

Above 1.2654 the Bearish influences start to wane fast. It does not mean there will be an explosive rally. Most likely it will be a choppy trade all the way up the upside target #1 where the market fell short of a few weeks ago. It is tough to be a Bull. So use caution until there is a valid signal confirming that the trend is firming up. Over all the GBPUSD is in a wide range trade, and you should treat it as so.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

So, the Swiss made a move. So, what? The USDCHF had a nice bounce last week. The long-term super trend is Bearish the USDCHF, and the short-term trend is in a state of divergence. Be careful. Everyone is waiting for the FED to do a midnight move. That would be a mistake. If they do…I know how I will trade it. The trend is negative, but running out of gas. Above the downside breakout level, the market is set to settle into the digestion area. A sideways trade is expected. A rally above the 0.9010 level is needed to set the Bulls up to challenge the critical resistance level.

If the USDCHF falls below the downside breakout level it could get a bit rough. The short-term sell-off zone would then be the objective for the Bears. That should be it unless Yields really drop big, and that is not likely.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The USDJPY Bulls are making a play for the upside breakout level. Upside momentum is building as the market frees itself from the chop zone. Do not fight a rally above 160.28. Sustained trading above here targets the 162.00 level. This FX pair is in play, and more volatility and swings are on the horizon.

If the market slips below 158.18 it will be more of the same as the Bulls and Bears wrestle for control in the chop zone. However, trading back in this area should give traders another buying opportunity. For the short-term, the USDJPY will be in a buy-break forecast. Unless there is a big sell-off in the Crude Oil market it is not likely there will be any sustained market turn to lower levels.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Winding its coil and not ready to spring. This is a tough trade, and we are sticking to the sideways range trade forecast. There is no sign of a solid trend in the AUDUSD. Neutral to slightly positive is the forecast. Look to buy into dips. Key off the breakout levels. Above 0.6762 the Bulls will try and make a play for the upside target level.

A failure from the downside breakout level is needed to confirm any market intentions to start a fresh trend lower. Below 0.6579 the Bears will be set to press the monthly directional pivot level. The downside correction zone is the extreme for a lower trade this week.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD is having trouble keeping the market in a Bullish posture. There are signs of the currency starting to lean on support. An early play for the critical support level is the call. A break under here is a good indication that new move lows are in the cards. The Bullish corrective support band should hold the market up for any fierce slide.

Sustained trading above 0.6081 will keep this FX pair in limbo up to the critical resistance band that has kept the NZDUSD from a fresh Bullish leg higher. It is doubtful that the market will get up into this area. If there is a close in or above this area there will be an update.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Mixed signals in the USDCAD have this market set for a choppy trade. Technical indicators are mixed, and the trend is only a slight Bull. Key off the Bullish support base area. Above here the market will be in a fight to get above and through the critical resistance correction band. If we get a close above this area we will have an update.

Under 1.3655 the Bears will be on a mission for new move lows. Be careful trying to fade a fresh leg lower in the short term. Fresh selling pressure could drive the USDCAD all the way into the downside correction band before there is a bounce. If this occurs it could signal that there is a big shift in trend developing. Let us see how the week pans out.