The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 6/3 – 6/7/2024

The DXY is stuck in a range trade. Wait for a signal.

Crude Oil Bears are holding this market down, but gas prices keep rising. More sideways is the outlook.

30yr T-Bond Yields look like they want to pull back. A follow-through rally is expected.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

Well, we have been calling for sideways, and we have got it. Use the monthly directional pivot level for the market’s bias. Trading above here will have the Bulls looking for a challenge of the upside breakout level. This is a big area keeping the market from catching a new leg higher. If the market can sustain a trade above 1.0897 the Bulls have a good chance of hitting the critical resistance band.

Below 1.0834 the Bears will be fighting to regain momentum. If the market can fall below the downside breakout level the critical support band will become a viable retracement area. This is all that is likely for a lower trade this week.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD Bulls are trying to maintain strength and keep the upside trend intact. Above the upside correction zone, the market is poised for another pop. The upside target #1 is the objective. With Yields in retreat, it is very likely that the market will make a run for this area. Be careful. This is the upper band for the current range trade.

If the GBPUSD can get a dip below the monthly directional pivot level the Bears could touch off a nice new leg lower. The downside correction band would be a good area to shoot for. This is about all that the Bears will be able to muster out of a fresh leg lower. With Yields in retreat, it will be very tough to hit this currency too hard to the downside.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

It has been a rough month for the USDCHF, and this currency will most likely remain in a holding pattern. The Bears may dwell in the digestion area for a bit, but this is about all that is likely for a lower trade. Only a failure from the 0.8936 level would confirm the market's resolve to make a run for the critical short-term support band.

A sustained trade above the 0.9010 level keeps the base of the range trade in place. A challenge of the critical resistance level is the call. However, with Yields is retreat it is unlikely the USDCHF will get above here. Only a close above 0.9149 would confirm the market is on a mission for higher move highs. This would make the upside target level a viable objective.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY traders have had the choppiest trade the last month. Guess what? More of the same is on the menu. It is very likely that the market will trade around the Bearish resistance band. Here are the two calls for the week…

• If Yields and Crude Oil rally then the USDJPY could press resistance, but it will most likely be a short-lived spike.

• If the USDJPY can get a close below the Bearish resistance band the market has a good chance at trending lower toward the critical short-term correction band.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

This market remains a Bull, but it is a weak one. The trend is intact, but it has little to show for it. Use the Bullish correction zone for direction. Above here the market will be flirting with another rally. The AUDUSD may get a boost if Yields continue their retreat. And if this continues there is a good case that the Bulls could rally up to the upside target level.

Below the Bullish correction zone the market will most likely sink through support all the way down to the monthly directional pivot level. Be careful in this area if the AUDUSD pulls back here. A touch-and-go trade is likely to develop in this area. The downside does not have much opportunity, but if Yields reverse that narrative should change. If this occurs the downside correction zone should get a test.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD is the one currency that looks like it wants to remain in a solid Bull posture. New move highs are the call for the week, and a rally into the critical resistance band is expected. Look out for a pullback off of this area. The trend is solid, but a profit-taking slide is overdue.

The slope of the current trend is steep. If the market reverses gears, it will be a grind of a trade lower. The Bullish support band is about as low as this currency is expected to get this week. Unless Yields revers and start to go higher, it will be very tough to get a Bearish view for this currency.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Talk about a twisted trade. Technicals are lighting up for both the Bulls and the Bears. There is no follow-through in sight. It would be advisable to stay away from this currency for a while. The coil is winding, and it may be a while before it springs. The best advice for USDCAD traders is this…Take a break. If you are Bearish the odds are in your favor, but how much can you expect? Not much.

For the Bulls, this currency is a nightmare. With soft Yields there is not much of a chance for a rally this week. If the Bulls take control the critical resistance correction band should hold the market at bay. Only a close above 1.3764 would confirm the market's resolve to press higher move highs up to the upside Bullish target level.