The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 6/05 – 6/09/2023

The DXY is consolidating but remains in a buy break posture. Follow Yields for direction.

Crude Oil is floating around the directional pivot level. More sideways is on the menu for the week.

30yr T-Bond sparked a fresh sell signal on Friday. This may help Yields spike for a few days.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The EURUSD is struggling with direction. It is a week and a half away from the Fed meeting, and this could be causing the pause in trend. The trend remains Bearish and a sell rally forecast remains. Selling pressure is expected to hold firm targeting the downside breakout level. This is a strong support area. If the market gets a close below here the Bears should get a boost. If Yields are rallying at the same time, then that would extend the downside objective to 1.0435 level.

Only a rally above the upside breakout level reverses gears for this currency. Trading back above this area sets the Bulls up for a potential leg higher up into the critical resistance band. Use caution holding Longs if the EURUSD gets back above 1.0900. Bullish momentum is likely to run out of gas in this area, and this would be a great area to take profits. If Yields start to fall back, then the market may have a chance at pressing a new trend move.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Has the GBPUSD settled into consolidation mode? Key off last week’s swing high, and expect an early run for support. The downside breakout level is the objective. If the market can slip below here it is likely to touch off fresh selling and drive the market into the downside target zone. The BOE is under a microscope wondering how to deal with harsh inflation. Ultimately it is unlikely that the Pound will be that resilient. If we get a close below the 1.2134 level, then the current trend will no longer be just a correction.

If Yields pull back sharply this week, then the Bulls may get a chance for a rally. The upside breakout level is the real challenge. It will be a touch and go trade if the market starts to rally this week. However, if the BOE makes a move then the outlook will start to change. If fundamentals strengthen for the Pound the Bulls may get a spike above 1.2679. Make sure to keep your Stops tight if you are a Bull. Overall this currency is a house of cards.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are running the trend for the USDCHF. A challenge of the upside breakout level is very likely this week. Trading above here should help the Bulls hit the upside target level. With a looming Fed meeting ahead it is likely that the Bulls will run out of gas. Only a rally above the upside target level confirms strength for an extended leg higher.

Sustained trading under the upside breakout level will have the Bulls and Bears grappling for direction. The downside target zone is all that is expected for the slide. Yields will dictate direction. If it looks like the Yields area going to fall, then look out below. Fresh selling pressure could have this market slamming new lows towards 0.8819 in a heartbeat.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The strong Dollar is fueling the USDJPY rally. Higher moving Yields are also lending strength. Key off the critical monthly directional pivot level. Trading above here will have the market flirting with the upside breakout level. A breach here, and the Bulls target the 143.50 level. Until the Fed stops raising rates the trend should remain strong to the upside.

If the Bears can reverse gears for the USDJPY, then the market should make a run for the downside correction zone. This is all that is likely from a sell off. Trend momentum is still a Bull. If the Fed reverses gears and stops hiking rates, then The Bears may be able to come back and slam this currency into the ground.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Aussie Bulls caught a solid bounce last week, and a challenge of the upside correction zone is likely. Do not get married to the current rally. A close above the upside correction zone is needed to confirm any long-term strength.

The trend is still Bearish overall. Watch Yields. If the Yields catch a bid, then the AUDUSD Bears are expected to rise to the occasion. The downside breakout level is the objective. Do not fight a move below here. Bearish momentum is expected to build under this area. 0.6218 is the long-term price target.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears are having a field day. With a Fed meeting lurking around the corner, this market may be ready for a rally back up towards the upside correction zone. This is it for a retracement higher. Fundamentals are very Bearish for this currency cross. Only a sharp turn in Yields would support an extended leg higher beyond the 0.6231 level.

If the Bears fall below the downside breakout level it would be unwise to fade it. Downside momentum should build in this lower area, and slam newer lows. 0.5844 is the downside objective. The fundamentals are horrible for the NZDUSD, and that should help the Bears out. Of all the currency pairs this one has the most room to the downside long-term.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

This currency pair sure took one on the chin last week. USDCAD however, is still set for more sideways trading. Use the downside breakout level for direction. Trading above here sets the market up for a bounce. As long as Yields stay strong this week the market has a chance to get a rally going. The Monthly directional pivot level is the objective. Most likely the market will run out strength around this area. More sideways to come.

A break under the downside breakout level targets support. The lower monthly directional pivot level is expected to hold. This currency has been trading sideways for a while, and it is unlikely to press the downside too hard. Only a failure from 1.3303 confirms weakness, and an extended downside objective of the 1.3141 level.

 ATTENTION!

SIGN UP FOR TIM ORD'S LIVE WEBINAR SERIES, JUNE 8TH & 15TH! ORD WILL REVEAL HIS WINNING STRATEGIES FOR THE SPX AND GOLD ON THE RESPECTIVE DATES!