The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 7/1 – 7/05/2024

The DXY is inching higher and may have a tough time reaching the upside target #1. Key off the upside breakout level for directional bias this week.

Crude Oil has flatlined and is holding just above the downside breakout level. It is a holiday week so pick your points well, and be rational with your expectations.

30yr T-Bond ended the quarter and the month on the skids. More downside pressure is likely this week.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bears have been keeping this market down. A short-term correction is likely. A challenge of the breakout level will be the key barrier to rally above. Sustained trading above 1.0762 targets the monthly directional pivot level. Expect strong resistance in this area. A close above 1.0834 is needed to confirm any extended longer-term show of strength.

If the Bears can get a print below the downside breakout level, it is very likely that this currency could hit the sell signal target zone that is still in effect. This is all that is likely for a fresh leg lower. With Yields on edge, it will be a bit rough on the EURUSD Bears. However, elections in France could touch off a bit of unexpected volatility and weakness. Remember it is a holiday market this week. Action may drop off fast on Tuesday, and make conditions very tough.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a grind lower GBPUSD traders are dealing with. More of the same is likely this week. Technicals are mixed as much as the fundamentals. Lower lows and lower highs indicate a test of support is likely this week. If the Bears can get a break under the monthly directional pivot level the short-term correction band becomes a very viable target. With Yileds on edge it may be hard for this FX pair to get much lower than this area.

Trading above the 1.2594 level will have the Pound in a wide-range trade all the way up to upside target #1. Three times a charm? A close above this level would be a good indication that the longer-term trend is becoming a Bull. 1.3020 and 1.3160 are the extended upside targets. If Yields get hit hard the GBPUSD may be able to reach new multi-month highs before July is over.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The DXY may be showing signs of a short-term retreat but not the USDCHF. Momentum is on the side of the Bulls. It may be a good time to raise your Stops, but there looks like room to the upside. First, the critical resistance level is what the Bulls need to challenge. If the market is going to run out of gas this would be a very good area for the market to turn off of. A close above the 0.9084 level would signal that this currency is looking to make a longer-term run back up towards the upside target level.

Only a move below the downside breakout level confirms that the Bears are back in control. The short-term sell off zone is the first stop on a slide that could tap the monthly directional pivot level. Until there is a very big slide in the DXY it is unlikely that there is any more room to the downside. If economic numbers really surprise over the next month, then a big Bearish outlook will develop for the USDCHF.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Well, it will be a very tough week for USDJPY traders. The market is pressing upper extremes as we head into the holiday markets. Flatline or crazy volatility? Use the upside breakout level for the market's bias this week. Sustained trading above here keeps the Bulls in a grind, especially with Crude Oil in a flatline trade. A sell-off in Crude coupled with more of a pullback in Yields is what the Bulls in this currency need. If this occurs there is a good chance that new highs could reach the 162.00 level over the next couple of weeks.

Below the upside breakout level the USDJPY will be in profit-taking mode down to the 158.18 level. A jittery trade is expected to build in this area. A failure here should have the Bears leaning on the downside breakout level. Under here the market will be back in the chop zone. Then the headache trade should return. If we get back to this area this week, there will be an update.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD has been in a very tough sideways trade for weeks. I warn you. There does seem to be something that is getting the market to percolate. An early challenge of resistance is on the menu. A rally above the upside breakout level should accelerate the Bullish momentum toward the upside target level. A close above the 0.6762 level targets the 0.6920-0.6945 upside target band.

Only a dip below the downside breakout level confirms fresh weakness. Trading under here will have the Bears leaning on the monthly directional pivot level. Be careful fading a move into this area. Downside momentum is expected to build and slam the AUDUSD all the way into the downside correction area. Let us see if a move in Yields or the DXY can get this market to wiggle. Maybe not this week. A good thing to do would be to step away from this currency until after the holiday, and a solid move is confirmed.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD hit the critical support level and is hovering just above it. Use this for the directional bias this week. Trading above 0.6081 sets the market up to pull back into the range of the last few weeks. It may be time for a profit-taking rally. But it will be a rally to Sell. Lower lows and lower highs intra-day keep this market in a sell rally forecast. The critical resistance band would be the extreme for a higher trading market.

Below 0.6081 the Bears will try and make a push into the Bullish corrective support band. If the longer-term trend is to resume this area should hold up. Trading below here, however, confirms weakness that targets the critical support band. The only thing that may limit the Bears' potential is if Yields start to firm back up. That would most likely reverse gears very sharply in this currency. A balloon under water type of rally could emerge if that scenario develops.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

And the coil continues to wind tighter and tighter. The holiday trade calls for a flatline trade this week. It would be wise to heed these words. Here is a Bullish and Bearish play for you…

Bullish: A rally above Friday's high will have the Bulls pressing the critical resistance correction band. A close above this area is needed to confirm strength and make a play for the upside-bullish target level.

Bearish: A failure from the downside breakout level should touch off fresh selling pressure. Bearish momentum has the potential to build here and extend weakness into the downside correction zone.

The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 7/1 – 7/05/2024

The DXY is inching higher and may have a tough time reaching the upside target #1. Key off the upside breakout level for directional bias this week.

Crude Oil has flatlined and is holding just above the downside breakout level. It is a holiday week so pick your points well, and be rational with your expectations.

30yr T-Bond ended the quarter and the month on the skids. More downside pressure is likely this week.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bears have been keeping this market down. A short-term correction is likely. A challenge of the breakout level will be the key barrier to rally above. Sustained trading above 1.0762 targets the monthly directional pivot level. Expect strong resistance in this area. A close above 1.0834 is needed to confirm any extended longer-term show of strength.

If the Bears can get a print below the downside breakout level, it is very likely that this currency could hit the sell signal target zone that is still in effect. This is all that is likely for a fresh leg lower. With Yields on edge, it will be a bit rough on the EURUSD Bears. However, elections in France could touch off a bit of unexpected volatility and weakness. Remember it is a holiday market this week. Action may drop off fast on Tuesday, and make conditions very tough.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

What a grind lower GBPUSD traders are dealing with. More of the same is likely this week. Technicals are mixed as much as the fundamentals. Lower lows and lower highs indicate a test of support is likely this week. If the Bears can get a break under the monthly directional pivot level the short-term correction band becomes a very viable target. With Yileds on edge it may be hard for this FX pair to get much lower than this area.

Trading above the 1.2594 level will have the Pound in a wide-range trade all the way up to upside target #1. Three times a charm? A close above this level would be a good indication that the longer-term trend is becoming a Bull. 1.3020 and 1.3160 are the extended upside targets. If Yields get hit hard the GBPUSD may be able to reach new multi-month highs before July is over.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The DXY may be showing signs of a short-term retreat but not the USDCHF. Momentum is on the side of the Bulls. It may be a good time to raise your Stops, but there looks like room to the upside. First, the critical resistance level is what the Bulls need to challenge. If the market is going to run out of gas this would be a very good area for the market to turn off of. A close above the 0.9084 level would signal that this currency is looking to make a longer-term run back up towards the upside target level.

Only a move below the downside breakout level confirms that the Bears are back in control. The short-term sell off zone is the first stop on a slide that could tap the monthly directional pivot level. Until there is a very big slide in the DXY it is unlikely that there is any more room to the downside. If economic numbers really surprise over the next month, then a big Bearish outlook will develop for the USDCHF.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Well, it will be a very tough week for USDJPY traders. The market is pressing upper extremes as we head into the holiday markets. Flatline or crazy volatility? Use the upside breakout level for the market's bias this week. Sustained trading above here keeps the Bulls in a grind, especially with Crude Oil in a flatline trade. A sell-off in Crude coupled with more of a pullback in Yields is what the Bulls in this currency need. If this occurs there is a good chance that new highs could reach the 162.00 level over the next couple of weeks.

Below the upside breakout level the USDJPY will be in profit-taking mode down to the 158.18 level. A jittery trade is expected to build in this area. A failure here should have the Bears leaning on the downside breakout level. Under here the market will be back in the chop zone. Then the headache trade should return. If we get back to this area this week, there will be an update.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD has been in a very tough sideways trade for weeks. I warn you. There does seem to be something that is getting the market to percolate. An early challenge of resistance is on the menu. A rally above the upside breakout level should accelerate the Bullish momentum toward the upside target level. A close above the 0.6762 level targets the 0.6920-0.6945 upside target band.

Only a dip below the downside breakout level confirms fresh weakness. Trading under here will have the Bears leaning on the monthly directional pivot level. Be careful fading a move into this area. Downside momentum is expected to build and slam the AUDUSD all the way into the downside correction area. Let us see if a move in Yields or the DXY can get this market to wiggle. Maybe not this week. A good thing to do would be to step away from this currency until after the holiday, and a solid move is confirmed.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD hit the critical support level and is hovering just above it. Use this for the directional bias this week. Trading above 0.6081 sets the market up to pull back into the range of the last few weeks. It may be time for a profit-taking rally. But it will be a rally to Sell. Lower lows and lower highs intra-day keep this market in a sell rally forecast. The critical resistance band would be the extreme for a higher trading market.

Below 0.6081 the Bears will try and make a push into the Bullish corrective support band. If the longer-term trend is to resume this area should hold up. Trading below here, however, confirms weakness that targets the critical support band. The only thing that may limit the Bears' potential is if Yields start to firm back up. That would most likely reverse gears very sharply in this currency. A balloon under water type of rally could emerge if that scenario develops.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

And the coil continues to wind tighter and tighter. The holiday trade calls for a flatline trade this week. It would be wise to heed these words. Here is a Bullish and Bearish play for you…

Bullish: A rally above Friday's high will have the Bulls pressing the critical resistance correction band. A close above this area is needed to confirm strength and make a play for the upside-bullish target level.

Bearish: A failure from the downside breakout level should touch off fresh selling pressure. Bearish momentum has the potential to build here and extend weakness into the downside correction zone.