The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 7/11 – 7/15/2022

USD spiked higher on Friday with a new move high pushing the trend. It is looking like most of the major pairs against the USD are looking for a bounce. Be careful fighting the current trend. Momentum is expected to build to the upside again.

DXY upside trend is looking for a turn…

Crude Oil Buy signal keeps this market pointed North…

30yr T-Bond is on edge adding to USD strength…

EURUSD Weekly Outlook :

Momentum is still pointed south for the EURUSD. Trading under 1.0281 keeps the Bearish trend intact. A test of 1.0073 is very likely. Use caution trying to fade the trend. This market remains in a sell rally forecast. 0.9865 is the longer-term downside target.

It will be rough trying to find a turn back to the upside. Is the Bulls are going to shore up this currency it will be a grind back up towards the 1.0281 level. Downward pressure is very strong, and an upside correction is not expected to yield much. Only a breach of 1.0281 confirms that this FX pair is on pause as the Bulls make a play for 1.0413. This is all that is likely for any leg higher. Fundamentals are just too strong driving USD strength.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook :

Bearish sentiment remains in the GBPUSD cross rate. Watch out trying to buy into weakness. Key off 1.2053 for direction. Sustained trading below here keeps the currency looking for another test of support. 1.1877 is the objective on a move that has the potential to reach the 1.1744 level. USD strength is not as strong in this currency pair. Expectations to the downside are not as extreme as other currencies.

Trading above 1.2053 relives the stress of the downside trend as the market tries to stabilize. The 1.2144 – 1.2198 upside target zone is about all that is likely for a rally. Downward momentum is not looking to wane any time soon. Only a sustained trade above 1.2198 keeps this market in a holding pattern as it makes an attempt to press resistance. 1.2261 should cap any new upside surge.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook :

The USDCHF Bulls pressed resistance in a big way last week. The market is butting up against a pivotal area. If this is just a corrective move to the upside then a pull back needs to occur. It is likely to be touch and go as this currency pair treads water above the 0.9781 level. If this move is going to run out of gas it will be before the 0.9848 target level. Any breach of 0.9848 may spark fresh buying extending the upside objective towards 1.0049.

There is not much of an expectation to the downside. A negative interest rate market in the U.S. helps to add fuel to the upside for this market. The buy break posture holds firm for this currency. Only a failure from 0.9495 changes this outlook, and an update will be sent out in case of such an event.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook :

The trend is your friend. The Bull rages on. Momentum is to the upside, and a run for the 139.14 level is likely this week. Crude Oil is rallying, and the U.S. interest rate markets are selling off. The perfect storm to hold the trend intact for the USDJPY.

A pull back is not out of the question this week. However, it will most likely be a break to buy. It will take a dip below 134.78 to set off a fresh wave of selling. 131.44 is the extended downside target. Not much else is likely to the downside.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook :

The trend is intact in this Forex pair. Beware of any short-term strength in this market. It is a sell rally forecast both fundamentally and technically. Trading under 0.6875 keeps the AUDUSD on edge looking for another test of support. Use caution. A dip under 0.6760 is likely to spark fresh selling for an extended leg lower down towards 0.6642.

Trading above 0.6875 is needed to shore up the AUDUSD for a reprieve from the downward pressure. It is likely to be a choppy trade up to the 0.6967 level. At best the market may fight to hold a consolidation range for a few sessions, but it is not likely to hold any show of strength for long. It would take a rally above 0.6967 to take us off of the bearish campaign, and negate the sell rally outlook.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook :

NZDUSD Bears are in full control of this trend. Fundamental, technical, and economic factors keep this market in the gutter. Bulls will be hard pressed to muster up a rally above the 0.6207 level. The trend is channeling lower, and it is very unlikely that a short-term rally will hold much momentum. Only a sustained trade above 0.6207 confirms that this market is on pause. 0.6351 will most likely put a ceiling on any short-term rally.

Do not try and pick a bottom here. A failure from 0.6124 keeps the NZDUSD in a faceplant position. 0.5870 is the longer term downside sell off objective.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook :

Last week the USDCAD pressed the wide range trade a bit higher. Long term this market is making higher highs and higher lows. It is at a very slight slope to the upside. New move highs were rejected, and we expect another test of support. The market is hovering around the 1.3019 Monthly pivot. Trading under here keeps the FX pair looking for another test of support down to 1.2931. If the Bulls are going to hold their ground, then this is the floor. Under 1.2931 the bears are likely to make a play for 1.2819.

If the bulls can hold a trade above 1.3019 then another run at new move highs may occur. A breach of 1.3083 sets the market up for a new move higher that targets the 1.3205 level. This is about all that is on the menu for a rally. The trend is positive, but it is a vey slow grind higher.