The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 6/8 – 6/12/2024

Yields are in retreat, and so is the DXY. More Bearish pressure is expected this week.

Crude Oil Bulls are stalling in the short-term trend, and a Bearish profit-taking move is on the menu.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are on the move, and Yields are pulling back. Employment numbers are going the way the FED wants. There are more people out of work than the month before. I wonder how the newly unemployed feel about it?

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls settled above the key 1.0834 level. More upside action is expected this week as the market is now in a buy-break posture. It would be unwise to sell into this move. Taking profits is not a bad idea. But Fading the Bulls would be unwise until there is at least an uptick in Yields. The Bulls are targeting the upside breakout level. It may take all week. CPI is not out until Thursday. If this number disappoints the Bulls are likely to lose their grip on this currency fast. However, if CPI goes down, then the market should breach the upside breakout level. A close above this area extends the upside objective to the critical resistance band.

Below 1.0834 the Bears will be in a grind all the way back to the downside correction band. This is all that is likely out of a correction this week. Only a super high CPI number would justify any sell-off below this area.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

GBPUSD Bulls are on a mission to cut through resistance. A play for the upside target #1 is very likely this week. Any early retracements are most likely going to be profit-taking pullbacks. Elections are turning things around in the UK. The leftists are losing some ground which is good for the Pound. Bad economic policies are already in motion to be overturned next week. But the new leadership is part of the WEF. It could be just a smokescreen. An update will be provided if there is an accelerated rally that is politically motivated. 1.3200 is the longer-term upside objective.

Unless there is a radical news event in the UK the Bears will have a grind lower on any dips. As stated before. A lower trading GBPUSD this week will most likely be a buying opportunity. Be careful. If the market pulls back it may fall into a range trade again. Watch to see how much volatility there is. If things get tight…Back Off! Do not get caught in the chop. Only a break below 1.2594 would confirm the Bears resolve to press a slide into the short-term correction band.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF traders took some fast profits during the holiday week. Expect a rough trade this week. Momentum is with the Bears as they look to test the downside breakout level. This is a critical area. A close under here would be a good indication that the market is going to pile this FX pair toward the short-term sell-off zone. If Yields continue the retreat they should reinforce the Bears in this market.

Only a violation of last week's high would take us off the negative outlook. A breach of this area would set the Bulls up to press the critical resistance level. That is all that is likely this week out of a very unlikely rally. However, if CPI is a disaster, the Bulls could be set to take the USDCHF on a longer-term trend higher.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The USDJPY made a higher move high once again last week. This week the Bears may be able to get a nice profit-taking correction. Our short-term call is a lower trade that targets the 158.18 level. A sustained trade below here would be a good sign that the Bears are bent on testing the downside breakout level. Trading back in this area places this FX pair back into the chop zone. Do not be surprised if this market goes back into range trade conditions.

A violation of last week's high should spark fresh buying as weak Stops get blown out. Fundamentals and technical are not very supportive for the Bulls. 162.00 is the extended upside objective, in the event of a fresh show of strength.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The AUDUSD Bulls are on a mission to challenge the upside target level. With the DXY under pressure, it would not be a surprise if upside momentum continues. Especially if CPI is much lower than expected on Thursday. That could be what adds fuel to Bullish momentum. This would make the long-term upside target a very reachable level over the next couple of weeks.

If the market retreats and sustains a trade under 0.6705 the range trade conditions may grab hold of this currency again. Between the breakout levels, it is a bad trade, and it is suggested that you be mindful of this. Below 0.6618 the outlook changes. Fresh selling pressure should enter the market to help the Bears get to the downside correction zone.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Can the Bulls keep the NZDUSD in an aggressive Bull posture? I think so. At least for a few days until the CPI release on Thursday. Higher move highs are the call for early in the week. However, there is no ginormous rally in the forecast. The Bulls have a good shot at reaching the critical resistance band. That should be the lid for a rallying market. This market bounced off good support and has had a boost from the slide in the DXY. Do not read into the Bullish action too much.

Only a break under the critical support level would take us off the higher to neutral forecast. Trading below 0.6132 could touch off some weak sell Stops. If this occurs the Bears should make it down into the Bullish corrective support band. If there is going to be a bounce it will most likely occur in this area. Should the NZDUSD fall under the 0.6048 critical support band it will be on the Bears’ radar. It would be unwise to try and fade the market back at these levels. The advice to think about would be to wait for a valid Buy signal at these lower levels if the market gets back to this area.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Talk about a head-scratcher scenario shaping up in the USDCAD. The market set a potential higher move low on Friday. Key off Friday’s low for the market's bias this week. A failure from here has the market below the downside breakout level with enough momentum to most likely hit the downside correction zone. This should be the floor on a slide. Fundamentals and technical indicators have this market set to rally back into the wide-range trade area. If there is a close below 1.3520 there will be an update.

Trading above the downside breakout level puts this currency into limbo up to the critical resistance correction band. Only a rally and close above the 1.3759 level would change the very neutral outlook for the USDCAD, and that situation may foster a short-term Bullish outlook. But first things first. Get a close above the 1.3579 area. Watch the DXY. If she gets hammered this week it will be hard to sustain most rallies.