The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 8/19 – 8/23/2024

The DXY continues to get slammed to the mat. More downside action is likely. Use the major directional pivot level for the DXY’s bias.

Crude Oil is chopping around in a range trade. More of the same is expected this week. No trend follow-through is likely this week.

30yr T-Bond traders are ready for the market to breakout of the wedge formation. Be careful. It may be a range trade this week with little direction.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls are on a mission to make higher move highs. Momentum is very strong and the market is in a buy dip posture. If the USD gets hit this week the Bulls could reach the upside target #1 by weeks end. 1.0950 is the longer-term rally objective.

It is hard to see a big sell off in the EURUSD unless there is a big swing in the USD. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would change the outlook to a Bear. This would set the currency up to test the monthly directional pivot level. The downside correction band should be the extreme for any big sell off. The only thing that would change this view is if there is a big change in Yields. If they go back up, then this FX pair could get hit hard.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Bulls are in control of this market, and they are ready to blast through new move highs. This rally has strong momentum and has the potential to reach the upside breakout level by Friday. If the GBPUSD gets above here then new monthly highs should keep going until the 1.3100 level is hit.

If there is a pull back it should be viewed as a profit taking break before the next wave higher. The downside correction zone is all that should occur for a lower trading market. Any trading under this area wouls be a negative sign that the short-term trend is stumbling and a digestive phase may develop. It would take a turn in Yields to justify any downside action beyond this area.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The USDCHF flirted with the upside breakout level but failed to breach this level. Trading under here is a sign that the market is ready to fall back on support. This makes the downside support band a reachable objective this week. Do not fight this slide. If the USD gets hit then this FX pair should set new multi-month lows.

Yields are in retreat and the USD is getting hit. This makes the situation for the Bulls a bit rough. However, if the market gets above the upside breakout level it should touch off Stops and fuel a move to the upside target #1. Most likely the most that the Bulls will be able to muster out of a rally is this area. If yields firm up the upside target #2 becomes the extended trend objective.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY traders have this market on edge pointed lower. An early test of the monthly directional pivot level is likely. Be careful trying to catch a falling knife here. If the USD gets hit it will be a short trip into the downside correction band. It would be unwise to fight this slide. Should the downside breakout level fail, then the Bears could be pressing the trend all the way towards the 138.50 level.

Use last week’s high as the key to a reversal of the trend. A rally above this area should help the Bulls challenge the critical BOJ threshold level. If the market is going to remain negative then the Bulls should not get above this area. Trading above 150.00 would be a positive indication that the market is going to try and make a run for the critical resistance band.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bulls are on the move ready to challenge the upside target level #1. A touch and go trade may develop in this area, but the Bulls should win out. This puts the upside target level #2 in the Bulls sights. As long as the USD is weak there is a chance that the short-term trend will remain intact. It would not be a surprise if the market sets new multi-month highs over the next few weeks.

There has been a big swing to the upside and a digestion period may develop. This should be just a pause in the trend. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would confirm a shift in direction. This makes the downside correction zone a reachable Bearish target. Trading back in this area cold also set the stage for a wide range trade. Let us see how things unfold.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bulls are trying to keep momentum to the upside. Another run at higher move highs is likely early this week. This should keep the market poised for a challenge of the critical resistance band. It is not likely that the market will get above here. If it does this week we will have an update.

If the Bears get a hold of the market, it should keep the market in a digestive trade back to the critical support band. This area must hold. A failure here should have the Bears leaning on the downside breakout level fast. Trading under here targets the 0.5700 area.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

USDCAD Bears are in motion set to make a test of the critical support band. This is a strong support area, and the market needs to hold here if the short-term trend will remain in a wide range trade. A failure from here would be a sign that the market is on a mission to press newer move lows toward the downside target level.

Sustained trading above the critical support band keeps the USDCAD in limbo up to the critical resistance band. Yields are weak and it is unlikely that the market will get over this hump. If the Bulls can get above this area, then the upside breakout level becomes a viable objective. 1.4070 is the longer-term upside target.