The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 8/21 – 8/25/2023

The DXY looks like it is running out of steam. If Yields continue to rise, then it is likely that the index will try and grind through resistance.

Crude Oil sell signal is half way to the exit price. It is likely to be a choppy trade as the Bears try to dig through support this week.

The 30yr T-Bond is trying to put the brakes on the current leg lower. This market remains in a sell rally forecast for the week ahead. The FED wants a recession so the trend should remain intact.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD traders have the downside target level in their sights. If Yields remain firm this week, then it is very likely that this currency will make a play for the downside target level. This is all that is in the forecast for this market to the downside. A pull back in Yields and USD strength is very likely this week. If this scenario is correct, then a sideways digestive trade should begin to develop. 1.0575 is the long-term Bear sell off objective.

If the USD starts to get beat up this week, then a run for higher levels in the FX pair should begin to start. It will most likely be a tough trade back to the upside breakout level. A breach of this area, and the Bulls should still have enough steam to hit the upside target level. This is all that is on the docket for this currency if there is a strong surge in Bullish momentum. Only sustained trading above 1.1111 confirms that EURUSD is trying to spark a longer-term rally. 1.1422 is the extended upside target price.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

This currency is winding its coil and is set to spring. An early play for the upside correction zone is the forecast this week. If this move back to this area is just a correction, then the Bears are likely to hold the market in this area. Only a close above the 1.2930 level confirms enough strength to bring back the longer-term Bull.

Watch out for a dip below the 1.2614 level. A failure from this level confirms the Bears intentions to piledrive this market towards the 1.2270 level. If the GBPUSD gets back into this area, be careful trying to fight the slide. 1.2195 is the extended sell off target.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The USDCHF is trying to inch higher, but it may be running out of gas. Short-term the trend is still a Bull aimed at the upside correction zone. Keep your stops tight. This market is expected to turn fast. Only a close above the 0.8962 level changes the outlook for this currency. If the market gets back into this area, then a wide range trade is expected to start.

If the market dips under the downside breakout level it would not be wise to fight the slide. A breaking market into these lower levels is likely to touch off fresh selling pressure. The 0.8441 – 0.8432 support band is the downside target. Trading back down at these levels would reinforce the long-term Bear trend. Even a strong USD is having trouble lifting this currency cross rate. 0.8277 is the extended trend objective.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bears triggered a Dark Coud Cover Sell Signal last week. A break down to the downside target level is the outlook. Be careful fighting a breaking market under this level. A nice profit taking correction is overdue for the market, and if the USD falls under pressure a pullback is not out of the question. This is all that is likely for a lower trending currency. This FX pair remains a long-term bull.

Only a rally above the 146.61 Stop Risk Level negates the Sell signal, and confirms the markets intentions to make a play for higher levels. 148.00 is the overall rally target. Watch the Crude Oil and Interest rate markets. If Cude Oil is up and Yields are higher, then the USDJPY is likely to get back on the aggressive rally track.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Aussie continues to hammer support. Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the AUDUSD in a holding pattern as the market digests recent losses. We are heading into the end of the summer, and a sideways trade is likely as we close the season down. There are no significant economic numbers for a couple of weeks. Between 0.6367 and the 0.6627 it will be a sloppy trade. 0.6692 is the upper extreme for a correction to the upside.

Do not fight a failure from the downside breakout level. This currency should be leaning on the 0.6270 level in no time. Unless there is a strong pull back in Yields, the AUDUSD is likely to keep trending lower into the end of the third quarter. Fundamentals remain atrocious for this FX pair. 0.6040 is the longer-term sell off objective.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Trading above the downside breakout level puts the Bears on hold as the market tries to digests the recent trend lower. Between the breakout levels it will not be a fun trade. Pick your points wisely. If the NZDUSD can take out the upside breakout level, then the market should flirt with the upside correction zone. 0.6214 should put a cap on any corrective rally.

If the market slips below the downside breakout level, it will be a good indication that the trend is not losing steam. 0.5780 is the first target on a move that has the potential to reach the 0.5500 level over the next month or so. The NZDUSD is another currency that is in a long-term Bear trend.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Trading under the upside breakout level will keep this market in a holding pattern all the way back to the downside breakout level. If the USDCAD retreats to these levels it may become a dicey trade. The short-term upside trend is a Bull, but the over all trend is neutral to Bearsh. A failure from the 1.3371 level and the market will be on edge as it targets the downside correction zone. This is all the is on the agenda for a lower trending market.

If the market can get above the upside breakout level, then the Bulls have a chance to extend the recent rally up to the upside target level. This is all that is on the agenda for the USDCAD Bulls. A pull back in the DXY is likely, and if this occurs it should set the currency up to become a Bear. However, if DXY remains strong, then the currency is likely to extend the Bullish target to the 1.3772 level.