The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 8/26 – 8/30/2024

The DXY continues to pierce through new move lows. The trend is on the Redline, and the USD Bears have the Index in a Sell rally forecast.

Crude Oil Bulls are leading the charge on a bounce, but the market is coming off new move lows. Range trade to sell rally forecast is the short-term outlook.

30yr T-Bond Bulls are looking to ride the Bearish bias from the FED. This market is wedging and ready to breakout. Keep watch on Economic numbers over the next couple of weeks. The Interest rate Complex may settle into a flatline trade. You have been warned.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bulls lifted the market to new move highs, and the outlook remains strong. A profit-taking slide is not out of the question this week, but it should be viewed as a break to buy. The downside correction zone should remain a floor for any pullback. If the market slips below 1.0990 the outlook will change to neutral as the Bears flirt with the downside breakout level.

Last week's high is the key to fresh buying. A rally above here would be a positive sign that the EURUSD is on a mission to cut through resistance. 1.1270 and 1.1320 are the longer-term rally targets. With a rate cut looming the stage is set for the Bulls to keep lifting this currency pair up.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

The slope for the recent leg higher in the GBPUSD is very steep, and momentum remains in the hands of the Bulls. A challenge of last week’s high is likely this week. 1.3305 and 1.3380 are the longer-term upside objectives. Yields are in retreat, and that should help keep this trend intact.

A profit-taking pullback is not out of the question this week, but if one should occur it should be viewed as a correction. The downside correction zone will most likely hold the Bullish trend together. Only a failure from 1.2949 would change this outlook as the Bears flirt with a break toward the downside breakout level.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

The Swissie is hovering above new multi-month lows. Could this be the week we see support get hammered? Maybe. A test of the downside breakout level is on the menu for this week, and a failure from here targets the 0.8350 level. It would be unwise to fade a sliding market into these lower levels. Downside momentum has the potential to drive the USDCHF all the way to the .08300 level.

If the market gets a bounce this week there is not much expected out of the Bulls. The upside correction zone should keep the trend intact, and keep the market from trying to reverse gears. A breach of 0.8628 changes the outlook to neutral as the Bulls make a play for the upside breakout level. With Yields in retreat, it is doubtful that USDCHF will get above here this week.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

The USDJPY is putting the downside correction zone to the test to start the week. This is a key area. If the market slips below 142.60 the Bears will be leaning on the downside breakout level. With a rate cut looming this market should remain in a firm Bearish posture. 140.70 is the longer-term sell target.

A sustained trade above the monthly directional pivot level this week would be a positive indication that the Bulls are going to make a run for the 150.00 level. This is a big area for the market. A rally above here would negate the Bearish trend and change the outlook to neutral.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD Bulls are on a mission for higher levels. A challenge of the upside target level #2 is the call for early in the week. Be careful trying to fight a rally above here. Upside momentum has the potential to launch this market up to the 0.6900 level before the trend starts to pause.

A profit-taking slide may develop this week to digest the recent market gains. The slope is steep, and a break back to the downside correction zone may occur. This should put a stop on a lower trading market. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would change the short-term outlook as the Bears start to aim for the monthly directional pivot level.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD is pulling back off the new move high set on Friday. A short-term pullback is the call for the first few days of the week. Bullish momentum was redlining last week, and a digestive trade is likely. A pullback to the critical support zone is the call. If the market falls under here the Bears will be on a mission for the downside breakout level. Should this FX pair settle below here there will be an update.

If the Bulls rally above Friday’s high, then the rally train will be back in motion. 0.6300 is the first stop on a move that could reach 0.6420 before there is a slowdown in the trend. If we get a close above the 0.6300 level there will be an update.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The Bears are hovering on the downside target level. This is a key area for the USDCAD. Sustained trading below here would be a sign that the market is on a mission to slam new lows. The downside correction band is the longer-term trend target to shoot for. With Yields in the gutter, it is very likely that this currency will be trying hard to reach this area.

Sustained trading above the downside target level this week puts the Bears on hold as the market tries to put the brakes on the recent leg lower. It will be a grind as the USDCAD slips into a range trade all the way up to the critical resistance band. Should the market get back to this area it should put a lid on any show of Bullish strength. If there is a close above this area there will be an update.