The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 8/07 – 8/11/2023 

The DXY has set a short term high, and is set to press support. Trading below 101.89 confirms weakness targeting the downside correction zone.

Crude Oil bulls are maintaining momentum, and a challenge of the upside target level is on the agenda this week.

30yr T-Bond Bears are pressing Yields higher, but a short-term bounce is in the cards for the beginning of the week. Time for a profit taking bounce.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The trend is Bearish for the EURUSD, but an upside move is brewing. Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the market in a Bullish posture aimed at the upside correction zone. This is all that is expected for a bounce in this currency pair this week. However, if the USD starts to get hammered, then the Bulls will be flirting with the upside breakout level. If this occurs, it would be a positive indication that the market is ready to resume the longer-term Bull trend.

The downside breakout level is a key area holding the EURUSD market afloat. A failure here is not to be taken lightly. Trading under 1.0908 sets the market up to press the recent slide towards the downside target level. This is all that is expected out of a Bearish leg lower.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

A buy signal was triggered in the GBPUSD last week. Key off the long entry level for direction. Trading above 1.2737 has the market set to challenge the upside correction zone. It may be touch and go around the 1.2920 level. This is the upside target for the signal. If the market is going to run out of steam, it should be around this area. Do not fight a sustained trade above 1.2944. Upside momentum is likely to build giving the Bulls a shot at new multi month highs.

Only a failure from the downside breakout level negates the buy signal, and really turns things up for the Bears. If this situation arises the Bears will have the opportunity to smash new move lows. 1.2270 and 1.2195 are the extended sell off objectives for the GBPUSD. If the USD is about to run out of strength this scenario has a high probable chance of developing.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Last week touched off a sell signal for the USDCHF. Key off last weeks high for direction. Trading below here confirms weakness that targets the 0.8617 level. This is the short-term target. Be careful fading a fresh leg lower in this market. The overall trend is a solid Bear.

Only a rally above the 0.8805 level confirms the Bulls resolve to press the rally further. The upside correction zone is the objective for a higher trading market. This should put a cap on a follow through rally. If the market returns to this area, it would be a sign that this currency is turning the longer-term trend to neutral.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bears have this market in retreat mode looking for a test of the downside correction zone. Remember this market is a raging Bull. This area should hold firm. The trend is a fierce Bull, and it should be respected. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would change the outlook to neutral. With U.S. Yields climbing it is an unlikely situation.

If the Bulls get above the upside breakout level this week it will be a touch and go trade as the market tries to press multi month highs towards the 146.50 area. Watch Crude Oil too. Strong Yields and Crude pricing will help to fuel Bullish momentum in the USDJPY. Reaching the 148.00 area is not out of the question over the next couple of weeks if the fundamentals continue to influence this currency pair.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Aussie traders had some volatile action last week. A critical swing low has been planted, and we shall see if it holds. Trading above the downside breakout level has the market poised for a corrective move. It is expected to be a fight all the way up towards the upside correction zone. The 0.6757 upside target level is the extreme for a higher trading market. This currency is an overall Bear.

Do not fight a break under the downside breakout level. Trading below here is a very negative signal that the market is set to pound new monthly lows. 0.6344 is the first stop on a move that has the potential to hit 0.6270 before there is a bounce. The fundamentals for the AUDUSD are a disaster.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

A short-term buy signal was triggered in the NZDUSD, and this sets the market up for a challenge of the upside target level. Bearish resolve is strong in this currency, and the Bulls may run out of steam fast. Only a sustained trade above 0.6154 confirms strength for a challenge of the upside breakout level.

If the NZDUSD falls below the downside breakout level the buy signal is negated, and the market should be pressing the downside target zone very fast. This is the first area of critical support. Trading under this area is a very Bearish sign that this FX pair is on a mission for lower levels. 0.5780 is the longer-term downside target.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The little engine that could. The Buy signal in the USDCAD is still alive as the market presses on into the upside correction zone. Sustained trading in this area should keep the Bulls alive and yield a challenge of the 1.3461 buy signal target. The trend is a long-term Bear, and not much more upside trading is likely out of this market. Only a close above 1.3461 confirms a shift in longer-term direction.

If the market falls below the critical swing low a tough trade is likely to develop. Trading back in this area is an indication that the market may be settling into a range trade to lower posture. We have raised the protective Stop level to the 1.3261 area to lock in a profit. Do not fight a slide below this level. Trading under here confirms weakness, and a resumption of the longer-term Bear trend.