The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 9/11 – 9/15/2023

DXY continues to ride the Bullish wave higher. Watch Yields for direction. If rates get a pullback, then a correction is likely to occur.

Crude Oil remains in an aggressive Bullish posture as it buts up against strong directional resistance. A profit taking pull back is expected in the short-term.

30yr T-Bond traders had as uneventful trade last week. Be careful fighting the Bear trend. Fundamentals are still pointing to a Hawkish FED.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

The 1.0639 level remains the objective for the Bears as the Sell signal continues to hold. Unless there is a strong pull back in Yields the EURUSD should remain in an aggressive sell posture. 1.0565 is the longer-term downside target.

Only a rally above the directional pivot level reverses the trend. This puts the 1.1029 upside target level in the very reachable category. This is about all that is likely for a corrective rally. The trend is solid, and the fundamentals reinforce the Bearish outlook. Only a big strong Hawkish move by the ECB is likely to reverse this outlook. The economic numbers over the next couple of weeks are not expected to rock the markets too significantly. However, if the numbers are positive for the EU the outlook could put a halt on the current Bear trend.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Talk about a market that is floating in the gutter. The Bearish momentum is relentless. Perhaps the economic numbers may slow the slide. Key off the downside breakout level for the market’s bias. Sustained trading above the 1.2441 level should help to give the Bulls a chance at a bounce. A challenge of the directional pivot level will be the true test of strength should a rally begin. If the GBPUSD gets a close above 1.2594 it would be a good indication that the trend is starting to stabilize.

Do not try and catch a falling knife with this market. If the GBPUSD gets below the downside breakout level, then new move lows could extend all the way down to the 1.2275 level. The market’s reaction to the economic numbers is key. Negative results could really secure the Bear trend for not just a few days, but for a few weeks. Make sure you pick your points well in this currency pair in the days ahead.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

USDCHF Bulls are stretching the trend, but resistance may start to prevail. The upside correction zone is expected to keep the market at bay for a little while. The only thing that would change that outlook would be if Yields press new highs this week. If Yields are stable to lower, then it is likely that the Bulls are going to run out of gas. Be mindful of your Stops in this FX pair.

Below the upside correction zone, the Swissie will most likely settle into a tight range trade. From 0.8926 down to the downside breakout level it will most likely be a very choppy trade. Only a failure from 0.8743 confirms the longer-term Bearish trend may be returning. 0.8698 is the first target to shoot for if new move lows occur. Trading back in this area would be a very good indication that the USDCHF could hit the 0.8425 level over the next couple of months.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Yen traders are struggling with newer move highs in this market. The trend is your friend, and a buy break outlook remains solid until there is a valid Sell signal. If Yields make new highs, then there is a very strong chance that the USDJPY will press newer move highs up towards the 149.44 level.

Only a failure from the directional pivot level confirms weakness, and, also puts the downside breakout level in the Bears path. If this USDJPY slips under this area an extended corrective move is expected to develop. The downside correction zone is a solid area for the Bears to reach if lower trading is only a correction. Unless the BOJ pulls the trigger and becomes Hawkish it is not likely that this currency will get much lower than the 141.26 level any time soon.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD traders are having a tuff time with making new move lows. Use the downside breakout level for direction. Trading below here will be a tuff grind as the Bears dig through support. The 0.6290 – 0.6277 support band is a good area that may stabilize the trend for a consolidation phase. Watch Yields. If Yields press higher, then the market will likely keep this currency on edge.

Trading above the 0.6357 sets the AUDUSD up for a tough trade. Between the upside and downside breakout levels the market is expected to act as it has for the past month. Do not expect much follow through. Only a rally above the upside breakout level confirms a solid reversal in this FX pair. The upside correction zone is about all that is likely if there is a reversal of trend though.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

NZDUSD Bears may be losing steam. Trading above the downside breakout level sets this market up for a range trade back up to the upside breakout level. If a solid correction is going to occur, then this is the key level to breach. Trading above 0.6013 targets the upside correction zone.

A failure from the downside breakout level is a good indication that the NZDUSD is going to press newer lows down towards the 0.5665 level. Yes. This currency can get hit that hard. Their economy is in shambles. If Yields make higher highs, then the NZDUSD is ripe to make newer move lows.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

The USDCAD touched off a Sell signal on Friday. Sell entry level is 1.3639, and the Stop risk level is at 1.3698. 1.3474 is the Sell signal profit target level. This is all that is expected for the signal, but technically the market is on track for a break back to the downside correction zone. Especially if Yields remain firm the Bears should not get below this area.

A rally above the 1.3698 level negates the sell signal, and confirms that Bullish momentum is not slowing down. 1.3800 is the first target on a rally that could reach 1.3875 before there is a pause. Trading back up at these levels would be a good indication that there are more than just Yields helping to support this trend. Economic woes are hitting the Canadian economy very hard.