The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 9/25 – 9/29/2023

The DXY Bulls are hanging below monthly highs. Key off the daily directional pivot level for the markets bias this week. A profit taking slide is likely, and remember the USD is in a ten-month rally.

Crude Oil is riding a steep Bullish slope. A short-term pause is very likely this week. The longer-term trend remains a strong Bull.

The 30yr T-Bond ended FED week with a Piercing Line buy signal. This market is ripe for a correction.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

EURUSD Bears are relentless with two plus weeks of selling. A short-term correction is due, and the downside breakout level should be used for the market’s bias this week. Trading above here gives this currency some relief as it tries to digest the recent break. It will be a tough choppy trade up to the directional pivot level. If the Bulls can hold a trade above this level, then the upside target becomes a viable area to shoot for. This is about all that the Bulls should muster up unless U.S. Yields start to retreat sharply.

Trading below the downside breakout level will keep the Bears in motion and set them up to make a play for the downside target band. This is all that is on the menu for this currency this week. If Yields start to press new highs, then the Bears may be able to get below the 1.0194 level. Realities about the EU economy are mounting daily, and that may be enough to push the EURUSD back over the edge. 1.0070 is the longer-term sell off target.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Slamming new move lows is what this market is all about. GBPUSD Bears have a tight grip on this currency. The trend is your friend, but a short-term profit taking bounce may be the call for this week. If Yields pull back, then this market may get a bounce. A rally back to the daily directional pivot level is the key challenge for any show of strength. Only a rally above this level confirms strength for a challenge of the upside target level. That is all that is on the agenda for the Bulls here. Fundamentals are collapsing in the UK.

If Yields start to move higher this week, then the Bears may press support down to the monthly pivot level at 1.2064. Use caution in this area. Trading around here is likely to get choppy so pick your points wisely. A failure from here is a positive indication that the GBPUSD is on a mission to pound this market all the way down to the 1.1739 level. 1.1424 is the longer-term sell off objective.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Wow what a rally in the USDCHF. I smell a head fake higher, and a short-term pull back is over do. Key off last weeks close at the 0.9068 level. Trading above here keeps the Bulls riding momentum higher. 0.9160 is the key level to shoot for. This is the big test for the market. If the Bulls rally above 0.9160, then that would be a good indication that this currency is trying to build a strong overall upside trend.

Below 0.9068 it will be a very tough trade trying to sell this market. Only a failure from the downside breakout level confirms the markets intentions to take advantage of a profit taking slide. 0.8814 is the short-term correction target. If Yields start to pull back significantly, then the USDCHF has the potential to reach the 0.8752 downside target level.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

USDJPY Bulls are pressing new move highs, but there is a good chance of a correction. The FED week last week ended with a buy signal in the 30yr T-Bond Futures. This has Yields set to pull back over the next few sessions at least. If this occurs, then the USDJPY is likely to fall below the downside breakout level. Fresh selling is expected to enter below this area, and help the Bears head towards the directional pivot level. Use caution should this currency slide back to this area. If this is just a corrective break it will most likely find support here. Remember the long-term trend is a Bull, and breaks should be viewed as corrections in the short-term.

Trading above the downside breakout level keeps the USDJPY poised for a rally that targets the 149.44 level. If the short-term buy signal in the 30yr T-Bonds fails, then Yields will be pressing higher. If this happens, then expect the USDJPY Bulls to start a fresh leg higher up towards the 150.88 level. It should be an interesting week for this currency pair to say the least. Stay nimble, and watch out for a surprise BOJ remark too.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

AUDUSD has settled into a range trade. More of the same choppy trading is expected this week. A breach of the upside breakout level should trigger fresh buying, and accelerate a rally into the upside correction zone. With Yields expected to pull back this week the Bulls may hold the wildcard for this currency.

A failure from the downside breakout level would be a good indication that the market is set to slam new move lows towards the 0.6290-0.6277 support band. If the AUDUSD gets back to this area the Bears may be able to piledrive this FX pair all the way to the 0.6160 level.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The NZDUSD Bulls are pressing the range trade towards the upside breakout level. A breach of this level is likely to spark fresh buying. 0.6071 is the first stop on a move that could hit 0.6146 before there is a pause. With Yields set to pull back this currency has a short-term Bullish bias.

Trading below the downside breakout level takes this market out of the range trade. New move lows are expected to come hard and fast. The 0.5665 level is the initial downside target. This area should hold up if Yields are in retreat…However, if Yields rally, then the Bears could press new move lows all the way back to the 0.5610 level before the week is out.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

Last week the USDCAD hit our sell signal target, and the Bears pressed new lows into the downside correction zone. This new move low is expected to hold if the longer-term Bull trend is to reemerge. Trading above 1.3393 keeps the Bulls on the job looking to make a play for the critical resistance band. If the market is going to run out of gas, then this would be a great area for this to occur. Watch Yields. If Yields head back to higher levels this currency has the potential to continue higher towards the upside breakout level,

A failure from the 1.3393 level targets 1.3321. Be careful, and do not try and pick a bottom below here. Trading back at these lower levels would be a very negative signal for the USDCAD. If Yields do get the expected pull back the USDCAD is likely to continue to press new multi week lows towards the 1.3050 level.