The Tiger Forex Report 9-6-22
The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 9/05 – 9/9/2022
DXY Bulls continue to ride a steep slope…
Crude Oil Bears are wrestling to maintain the trend…
30yr T-Bond continues to hammer support…
EURUSD Weekly Outlook :
EURUSD Bears still control the trend in this market. 0.9827 is the first target on a slide that has the potential to hit 0.9685 before the week is out. Sustained trading under 1.0079 will be a fight for any Bulls. As long as the interest rate market presses higher yields, then the EURUSD is bound to keep making lower move lows.
Only a breach of 1.0079 helps to setup a corrective move for some profit taking. The 1.0125 – 1.0179 corrective zone should most likely stop any aggressive surge to the upside. It is very unlikely that this currency pair will hold up above 1.0179. Only a reversal in interest rate yields would change this outlook. 1.0368 is the longer-term upside objective.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook :
British Pound traders rode the steep slope lower last week hitting our key support level. A sloppy trade is likely to develop at these lower levels as the currency pair digests the break. The slope of the trend is very steep, and has the potential to slam support some more this week. If the U.S. interest rates press yields higher then a continuation of the Bear trend in the Pound is likely. 1.1245 is the downside objective.
Sustained trading above 1.1483 holds the currency pair in limbo as Bulls and Bears fight to control direction. It will probably be a struggle for Bulls in this region. If yields reverse gears then the Bulls in the GBPUSD may be able to spark a correction. The 1.1862 – 1.9577 upside correction zone is expected to stop any Bullish move in its tracks. 1.2265 is the extended Bullish objective.
USDCHF Weekly Outlook :
Swissie Bulls are not ready to relinquish the trend. With the European economy collapsing it will be a tough trade for USDCHF Bears. A challenge of 0.9888 is likely this week. Use caution fighting this rally. A print above 0.9888 should ignite fresh buying. 1.0217 is the upside target level. Higher U.S. interest rate yields also support this outlook.
Only a failure from 0.9581 reverses gears for another big break that targets the 0.9372 level. Unless there is a change in interest rate yields it is not likely that the USDCHF will get any lower than this area. If the European central banks change their policy then this scenario may change. It would take a very Hawkish stance by them occur for this outlook to change.
USDJPY Weekly Outlook:
Boy oh boy are the USDJPY Bulls on a terror. It would be unwise to fade the current trend. 142.82 is the upside target. With U.S. yields climbing it will be hard to get a sell off in this currency pair. The trend is riding a steep slope, but the fundamentals are there to support it. Counter trend signals are not expected to yield any decent results under the market conditions present currently.
Should a reversal in trend occur then the 135-29 – 134.35 downside correction zone is where a floor is likely to develop. Trading back in this area should be viewed as corrective in nature. Only intervention by the BOJ would change this outlook. The long-term trend is a very influential Bull.
AUDUSD Weekly Outlook :
AUDUSD is grinding lower targeting long-term directional support at the 0.6678 level. The trend is an overall Bear, and this market remains in a sell rally forecast. 0.6488 is the extended downside target. Volatility is likely to be low, and Bearish weakness should hold the key to direction.
If the Bulls can sustain a trade above 0.6859 then the Bulls may get a chance to play. The trend is a Bear, but a correction back towards 0.7162 is not out of the question. This is likely to cap any show of strength. Only a major shift in 30yr T-Bond yields, or a rebound in the Aussie economy would change this view.
NZDUSD Weekly Outlook :
The NZDUSD is hovering over out downside target at the 0.6020 level. It may be time for some digestion, but the sell rally forecast remains. 0.5877 is the extended downside objective. New Zealand is looking at some very trying economic times ahead. Be careful of taking any counter trend trades.
If there is a heavy sell off in the USD globally, then it is likely the NZDUSD will get a bounce. If this should occur the upside correction zone should put the breaks on any bounce. The 0.6260 – 0.6308 area is a strong directional pivot area. This is where the Bears will be waiting to pick a fight again.
USDCAD Weekly Outlook :
Could the breakout finally be ready to happen? Can the Bulls get a follow through move? The USDCAD is flirting with an upside breakout. 1.3467 is the first target on a move that has the potential to reach 1.3580. The short-term trend is bullish, but the longer-term trend is a wide grinding range trade. Use caution, and manage your Longs wisely.
If there is a sell off, then 1.3020 should start to put the breaks on any slide. If the short-term trend is going to remain intact it would be unlikely that the USDCAD will get below 1.2966. A failure from 1.2898 would be a signal that this market is back to more of the same. Big sideways chop.