The Tiger Forex Report – Week of 11/19 – 11/23/2024

The DXY Is in a parabolic rally…could it be ready for a profit-taking break???

Crude Oil Slama Jama Bear trend in motion. The Bears are growling and happy with the election results.

30yr T-Bonds are a Bull and showing the FED the “Bird”. A sell rally forecast is the call.

EURUSD Weekly Outlook:

A profit-taking bounce is expected in the EURUSD. There may be some good profit potential from a Bullish counter trade. Key off the downside target #1 for directional bias this week. Trading under here keeps the Bears in control, and will keep the market on edge targeting the 1.0400 level. If Yields stay firm there is little chance of the trend reversing.

A bounce in Yields this week should help the Bulls get a rally going. Trading above the downside target level #1 is a positive indication that the Bulls are going to make a go at firming up for a few sessions. The upside correction zone is the area to shoot for. This is all that is likely from a move higher. Only a violation of the upside breakout level would confirm that this FX pair is on the move, and a potential shift in trend may be in motion.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook:

Pounding the pound! This market is on edge and is ready to lean on the monthly directional pivot level. Do not try and catch a falling knife. Downside momentum has the potential to reach the downside target level. Watch Yields. As long as Yields remain firm the GBPUSD should remain pointed lower.

If the market remains above the monthly directional pivot level the Bulls should start to firm up. The upside correction zone is the area to aim for. This is a good spot for a minimal reversal of fortune. Be careful fighting a bounce. If Yields start to pull back the GBPUSD could reach the upside breakout level before the week is out.

USDCHF Weekly Outlook:

Signs of a turn are brewing in the USDCHF. Upside momentum seems to be running out of steam. The call this week is for a Bearish correction that puts the downside breakout level in traders' sights. This is a key area for support. Do not fight a break below this area. Fresh selling pressure is expected to grow in this area. Trading below this spot would be a very Bearish sign that this FX pair is going to probe new move lows into the Bearish correction band.

If the market is going to resume the uptrend the Bulls need to get above last week's swing high. Trading above this point would be a Bullish sign that the market is bent on breaching newer move highs. The upside target level then becomes a viable objective for the week. If Yields remain firm this scenario has some potential.

USDJPY Weekly Outlook:

Short-term sell signal in the USDJPY on Friday sets this market up for a lower move this week. Watch Crude Oil. If the Oil market remains on edge banging new move lows there is a good chance that this currency could get a nice profit-taking slide going. A correction would be good for the trend if longer-term momentum is to remain Bullish. Friday the market posted a higher move high and an outside day with a lower close. This sets the market up to pressure support toward the downside breakout level. A failure here is not to be taken lightly. Fresh selling pressure could send this FX pair all the way into the downside correction zone.

If the Bulls rally above last week’s high all Bearish bets are off the table. New move highs would be a very Bullish indication that the USDJPY is on a mission to keep the trend intact. If Oil bounces and Yields remain firm there is a good chance that the Bulls will stay in control and start to continue up towards the long-term trend target level.

AUDUSD Weekly Outlook:

The Aussie remains on edge and sustained trading under the major trend support level keeps the Bears in the driver's seat. No stop signs here. Do not fight new move lows. Selling pressure has the potential to slam new move lows all the way to the downside target level.

A bounce is on the horizon, but not likely this week. Only a close above the major trend support level would confirm that this market is shoring up. This makes the upside correction zone a viable objective. If Yields retreat then the Bulls may get a boost to help a corrective profit-taking rally in motion.

NZDUSD Weekly Outlook:

Falling like a rock. The NZDUSD is expected to keep leaning on newer move lows. The downside target level is a key point for the trend. Sustained trading under this area is a very negative indication that the market is going to slam support all the way to the 0.5750 level before there is any bounce or consolidation.

If the Bulls are going to reverse gears it will probably take a turn in Yields. If Yields start to pull back this market should see some relief. If this scenario plays out the Bulls will be in profit-taking mode all the way into the critical correction band. Be careful hanging onto long positions this week. If Yields remain firm rallies are likely to be fleeting spikes.

USDCAD Weekly Outlook:

This market is in full vertical mode. As long as the DXY remains firm the USDCAD should stay in an aggressive Bullish posture aimed at the upside target level. There is more room to the upside, but a short-term spike is likely in this area. The slope is steep, and any turn in Yields should put a stop to upside momentum for a little while.

Key off Friday’s high. Trading below this level should help the USDCAD get a profit taking sell-off in motion. The downside correction band is a very likely area to fall back into. If Yields retreat the Bears are very likely to gain an edge in the short term. That is all that is on the agenda for a lower trade. Only a failure from the downside breakout level would change this outlook. Trading under here changes everything as the longer-term outlook shifts into neutral. If this should unfold, the downside target #1 becomes a viable longer-term sell-off objective.